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Politics & Government

Russ Carnahan Makes "Vulnerable" List

Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg thinks incumbent Russ Carnahan will have a difficult time in the upcoming election.

A political observer placed (D-St. Louis) on a list of vulnerable incumbents. Carnahan currently represents Brentwood and Maplewood in Congress.

Carnahan, who nearly lost re-election last year against Republican attorney Ed Martin, was effectively the odd man out in the state’s redistricting process. That prompted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg to place Carnahan on his “dangerous dozen list.”

“Missouri lost a district, and the GOP Legislature squeezed out Carnahan,” Rothenberg wrote. “Some of his district was given to Rep. William Lacy Clay, D-St. Louis City, and the rest to Rep. Todd Akin, R-Wildwood. Carnahan hasn’t announced his plans, but since Akin is running for the Senate, a run in his district would seem more likely than against Clay in a district where African-Americans constitute a large majority in a Democratic primary.”

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Rothenberg went onto say that Akin’s open seat leans Republican, as evidenced by the fact that Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, received 53 percent of the vote there in 2008.

“So if Carnahan does run for re-election, he’ll start off in a very difficult position,” Rothenberg wrote.

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